Statistical Forecasting of Trends in Tubular Pressure Part Forced Outage Rates for Fossil Boilers

[+] Author and Article Information
R. H. V. Gallucci, D. S. Moelling

Power Systems, Combustion Engineering, Inc., Windsor, Conn. 06095

K. P. Talbot

Power Plant Design and Construction, Wisconsin Public Service Corp., Green Bay, Wisc. 54307

J. Pressure Vessel Technol 110(1), 91-96 (Feb 01, 1988) (6 pages) doi:10.1115/1.3265574 History: Received June 01, 1987; Online November 05, 2009


Statistical models for calculating age-dependent component failure rates and system unavailabilities have been combined into a flexible procedure to forecast trends in tubular pressure part forced outage rates for fossil boilers as a function of their ages. These models have been computerized, and the forecasting procedure has been applied to predicting trends at six fossil units of a specific utility. The analytic procedure is described, and its application to the example study is discussed.

Copyright © 1988 by ASME
Topics: Pressure , Boilers , Failure
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