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Research Papers: Pipeline Systems

Target Reliability Levels for Design and Assessment of Onshore Natural Gas Pipelines

[+] Author and Article Information
Maher Nessim

 C-FER Technologies, 200 Karl Clark Road, Edmonton, AL, T6N 1H2, Canadam.nessim@cfertech.com

Wenxing Zhou

 C-FER Technologies, 200 Karl Clark Road, Edmonton, AL, T6N 1H2, Canadaw.zhou@cfertech.com

Joe Zhou

 TransCanada Pipelines Limited, 450-1 Street Southwest, Calgary, AL, T2P 5H1, Canadajoe_zhou@transcanada.com

Brian Rothwell

 Brian Rothwell Consulting Inc., 100 Hamptons Link Northwest, Calgary, AL, T3A 5V9, Canadabrian.rothwell@shaw.ca

J. Pressure Vessel Technol 131(6), 061701 (Sep 23, 2009) (12 pages) doi:10.1115/1.3110017 History: Received March 14, 2008; Revised July 16, 2008; Published September 23, 2009

This paper proposes a set of reliability targets that can be used in the design and assessment of onshore natural gas pipelines. The targets were developed as part of a PRCI-sponsored project that aims to establish reliability-based methods as a viable alternative for pipeline design and assessment. The proposed targets are calibrated to meet risk levels that are considered widely acceptable. The proposed criteria are based on a detailed consideration of both societal and individual risk criteria. Two societal risk criteria were considered: the first based on a fixed expectation of the number of fatalities and the second based on a risk aversion function as characterized by a F/N relationship. Societal risk criteria were calibrated to match or exceed the average safety levels implied by current codes. Individual risk criteria were based on published tolerable levels. The target reliability levels corresponding to the three criteria are presented and a recommended set of targets is presented.

Copyright © 2009 by American Society of Mechanical Engineers
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References

Figures

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Figure 1

Example F/N curve from IGE/TD/1 (6)

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Figure 2

Illustration of the approach used in estimating the expected number of fatalities

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Figure 3

Calculated risk levels for ASME B31.8 designs

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Figure 4

Reliability targets by location class based on societal risk with fixed expectation

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Figure 5

Reliability targets as a function of population density based on societal risk with fixed expectation

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Figure 6

F/N plots for all viable design cases

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Figure 7

Reliability targets by location class based on societal risk with aversion function

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Figure 8

Reliability targets as a function of population density based on societal risk with aversion function

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Figure 9

Reliability targets by location class based on individual risk

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Figure 10

Reliability targets as a function of population density based on individual risk

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Figure 11

Class location-based reliability targets from all three criteria considered

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Figure 12

Population density-based reliability targets from all three criteria considered

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Figure 13

Relative expected number of fatalities for large leaks and ruptures

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Figure 14

Comparisons between equivalent design factors for RBDA and ASME B31.8

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Figure 15

Cost comparisons between RBDA and ASME B31.8 designs

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