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Research Papers: Codes and Standards

# Identification of the Cause of Variability of Probability of Failure for Burst Models Recommended by Codes/Standards

[+] Author and Article Information
Mainul Hasan

Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, NL, A1B 3X5, Canadamsh678@mun.ca

Faisal Khan

Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, NL, A1B 3X5, Canadafikhan@mun.ca

Shawn Kenny

Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, NL, A1B 3X5, Canadaspkenny@mun.ca

J. Pressure Vessel Technol 133(4), 041101 (May 18, 2011) (9 pages) doi:10.1115/1.4002862 History: Received June 17, 2010; Revised October 12, 2010; Published May 18, 2011; Online May 18, 2011

## Abstract

Failure probability of oil and gas pipelines due to external corrosion defects can be estimated using corrosion growth model and the evaluation of remaining strength. Codes/standards have been developed for the assessment of the remaining strength of corroded pipeline. The remaining strength and the operating pressure were considered to develop the limit state equation and consequently the failure probability of the burst models recommended by codes/standards. In the present paper, comparative analyses of the failure probability estimated by the codes/standards were conducted, using Monte Carlo simulation and first order second moment methods. The analysis revealed that the failure probability of the burst models recommended by codes/standards varies significantly for the same defects size. The study further explored the cause of variability in failure probabilities. The study observed that different defect shape specifications (rectangular, parabolic, etc.) and different stress concentration factor derivations (different contributions of $l$) for burst pressure estimation are responsible for high variability in the probability of failure. It is important to reduce variability to ensure unified risk-based design approach considering any codes/standards.

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Copyright © 2011 by American Society of Mechanical Engineers
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## Figures

Figure 1

Short sketch of risk-based design of process system

Figure 2

Force equilibrium in a pressurized thin pipe

Figure 3

A simplified externally corroded surface flaw in pipeline

Figure 4

The flow chart depicts the calculation procedure followed in this text

Figure 5

Failure probability Pf for different codes/standards using burst in the limit state equation: (a) normal graph and (b) logarithmic graph

Figure 6

Graphical representation of sensitivity analysis of dimensionless parameter by Monte Carlo method

Figure 7

Graphical representation of sensitivity analysis of Pbi factor by Monte Carlo method

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