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Research Papers: Design and Analysis

A Probabilistic Lifetime Prediction Technique for Piping Under Creep Conditions

[+] Author and Article Information
T. J. Delph, D. G. Harlow, M. Ozturk

Department of Mechanical Engineering and Mechanics, Lehigh University, Bethlehem, PA 18015

D. L. Berger

 PPL Generation, 2 North 9th Street, Allentown, PA 18101

J. Pressure Vessel Technol 132(5), 051206 (Aug 31, 2010) (6 pages) doi:10.1115/1.4001266 History: Received March 16, 2009; Revised January 21, 2010; Published August 31, 2010; Online August 31, 2010

We outline here a simple approximate method of lifetime prediction for high-temperature, internally pressurized piping components that takes into account the very large scatter present in the creep data for commonly used piping materials. This scatter is so large as to make deterministic methods of life prediction quite problematic. The method presented here is based upon the well-known Monte Carlo technique, and makes use of the standard damage fraction as the basic measure of creep damage. The method yields predictions of the probability of failure after a fixed operating time, assumed to be large.

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Copyright © 2010 by American Society of Mechanical Engineers
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Figures

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Figure 1

Experimental creep failure data for Grade 11 (1.25 Cr–0.5 Mo) steel (1)

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Figure 2

Experimental creep strain data for Grade 11 (1.25 Cr–0.5 Mo) steel (1)

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Figure 3

Values of ln(C) for four data sets on normal probability paper. The normal distribution corresponding to the calculated mean and variance is shown as a straight line.

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Figure 4

Values of n for four data sets on normal probability paper. The normal distribution corresponding to the calculated mean and variance is shown as a straight line.

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Figure 5

Values of ln(A) for ten data sets on normal probability paper. The normal distribution corresponding to the calculated mean and variance is shown as a straight line.

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Figure 6

Values of ν for ten data sets on normal probability paper. The normal distribution corresponding to the calculated mean and variance is shown as a straight line.

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Figure 7

Deviation in individual specimen failure times Δtf within a given data set from the data set mean trends

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Figure 8

Individual specimen deviations Δtf on normal probability paper

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Figure 9

Temperature histogram

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Figure 10

Damage fraction probability after 500,000 h operating time

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