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Research Papers: Pipeline Systems

An Efficient Methodology for the Reliability Analysis of Corroding Pipelines

[+] Author and Article Information
Shenwei Zhang

Department of Civil and
Environmental Engineering,
Western University,
London, ON N6A 5B9, Canada
e-mail: szhan85@uwo.ca

Wenxing Zhou

Assistant Professor
Department of Civil and
Environmental Engineering,
Western University,
London, ON N6A 5B9, Canada
e-mail: wzhou@eng.uwo.ca

1Corresponding author.

Contributed by the Pressure Vessel and Piping Division of ASME for publication in the JOURNAL OF PRESSURE VESSEL TECHNOLOGY. Manuscript received November 26, 2012; final manuscript received February 5, 2014; published online April 3, 2014. Assoc. Editor: Roman Motriuk.

J. Pressure Vessel Technol 136(4), 041701 (Apr 03, 2014) (7 pages) Paper No: PVT-12-1176; doi: 10.1115/1.4026797 History: Received November 26, 2012; Revised February 05, 2014

This paper describes an efficient methodology that utilizes the first order reliability method (FORM) and system reliability approaches to evaluate the time-dependent failure probabilities of a pressurized pipeline at a single active corrosion defect considering three different failure modes, i.e., small leak, large leak, and rupture. The criteria for distinguishing small leak, large leak, and rupture at a given corrosion defect are established based on the information in the literature. The wedge integral and probability weighting factor methods are used to evaluate the probabilities of small leak and burst, whereas the conditional reliability index method is used to evaluate the probabilities of large leak and rupture. Two numerical examples are used to illustrate the accuracy, efficiency and robustness of the proposed methodology. The proposed methodology can be used to facilitate reliability-based corrosion management programs for energy pipelines.

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Figures

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Fig. 1

Geometry description of correlation coefficient

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Fig. 2

Geometry descriptions of failure probabilities

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Fig. 3

Split components by wedge integral

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Fig. 4

Time-Dependent annual failure probabilities for Example 1: (a) scenario 1, (b) scenario 2, and (c) scenario 3

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Fig. 5

Time-Dependent annual failure probabilities for Example 2: (a) scenario 1, (b) scenario 2, and (c) scenario 3

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