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Research Papers: Pipeline Systems

Development of Probability of Ignition Model for Ruptures of Onshore Natural Gas Transmission Pipelines

[+] Author and Article Information
Chio Lam

Department of Civil and
Environmental Engineering,
The University of Western Ontario,
London, ON N6A 5B9, Canada

Wenxing Zhou

Associate Professor
Department of Civil and
Environmental Engineering,
The University of Western Ontario,
London, ON N6A 5B9, Canada
e-mail: wzhou@eng.uwo.ca

1Corresponding author.

Contributed by the Pressure Vessel and Piping Division of ASME for publication in the JOURNAL OF PRESSURE VESSEL TECHNOLOGY. Manuscript received May 13, 2015; final manuscript received September 29, 2015; published online April 28, 2016. Assoc. Editor: Chong-Shien Tsai.

J. Pressure Vessel Technol 138(4), 041701 (Apr 28, 2016) (8 pages) Paper No: PVT-15-1098; doi: 10.1115/1.4031812 History: Received May 13, 2015; Revised September 29, 2015

A log-logistic probability of ignition (POI) model for ruptures of onshore natural gas transmission pipelines is proposed in this paper. The parameters of the proposed POI model are evaluated based on a total of 188 rupture incidents that occurred on onshore gas transmission pipelines in the U.S. between 2002 and 2014 as recorded in the pipeline incident database administered by the Pipeline and Hazardous Material Safety Administration (PHMSA) of the U.S. Department of Transportation. The product of the pipe internal pressure at the time of rupture and outside diameter squared is observed to be strongly correlated with POI and therefore adopted as the sole predictor in the POI model. The maximum likelihood method is employed to evaluate the model parameters. The 95% confidence interval and upper confidence bound on the POI model are also evaluated. The model is validated against an independent set of rupture incident data reported in the literature. The proposed POI model will facilitate the quantitative risk assessment of onshore natural gas transmission pipelines in the U.S.

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References

Figures

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Fig. 1

POI versus pd2 for the PHMSA rupture incidents

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Fig. 2

HL test result for the logistic and log-logistic POI models: (a) logistic model and (b) log-logistic model

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Fig. 3

Ninety-five percentage confidence interval and 95% upper confidence bound on the log-logistic POI model

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Fig. 4

Comparison of the proposed POI model and simple linear regression POI models

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