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Research Papers: SPECIAL SECTION PAPERS

Problems and Perspectives in Seismic Quantitative Risk Analysis of Chemical Process Plants

[+] Author and Article Information
Antonio C. Caputo

Mem. ASME
Department of Engineering,
Roma Tre University,
Via Vito Volterra 62,
Rome 00146, Italy
e-mail: antonio.caputo@uniroma3.it

Fabrizio Paolacci

Mem. ASME
Department of Engineering,
Roma Tre University,
Via Vito Volterra 62,
Rome 00146, Italy
e-mail: fabrizio.paolacci@uniroma3.it

Oreste S. Bursi

Mem. ASME
Department of Civil,
Environment and Mechanical Engineering,
University of Trento,
Via Mesiano 77,
Trento 38123, Italy
e-mail: oreste.bursi@unitn.it

Renato Giannini

Department of Architecture,
Roma Tre University,
Via Aldo Manuzio 68 L,
Roma 00153, Italy
e-mail: renato.giannini@uniroma3.it

Manuscript received December 3, 2017; final manuscript received July 5, 2018; published online December 14, 2018. Assoc. Editor: Tomoyo Taniguchi.

J. Pressure Vessel Technol 141(1), 010901 (Dec 14, 2018) (15 pages) Paper No: PVT-17-1245; doi: 10.1115/1.4040804 History: Received December 03, 2017; Revised July 05, 2018

Earthquakes represent a class of natural-technical (NaTech) hazards which in the past have been responsible of major accidents and significant losses in many industrial sites. However, while codes and standards are issued to design specific structures and equipment in both the civil and industrial domain, established procedures for seismic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of process plants are not yet available. In this paper, a critical review of seismic QRA methods applicable to process plants is carried out. Their limitations are highlighted and areas where further research is needed are identified. This will allow to refine modeling tools in order to increase the capabilities of risk analysis in process plants subjected to earthquakes.

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Figures

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Fig. 1

Buckling phenomenon in the skirt at a column base [25]

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Fig. 2

Residual deformation of the anchor in the column skirt [25] (Reproduced from https://nisee.berkeley.edu/elibrary/Image/S116)

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Fig. 3

Elephant foot buckling failure of 2000 m3 water tank [31]

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Fig. 4

Sloshing buckling failure of a water tank [31]

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Fig. 5

Motor fuel storage tank slid off its foundation causing extensive damage to inlet and outlet piping [32] (Reprinted with permission of Earthquake Engineering Research Institute © 2002)

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Fig. 6

Damages to tanks with floating roof due to Tokachi-Oki earthquakes [38] (Reprinted with permission from Springer Nature © 2007)

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Fig. 7

LPG tank failure during the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake [40]

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Fig. 8

LPG tank failure during the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake [41] (Reprinted with permission of Elsevier © 2000)

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Fig. 9

Seismogenic zones and site: Priolo Gargallo (Italy)

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Fig. 10

Example of Hazard curve of Priolo Gargallo, Italy

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Fig. 11

(a) Selection of natural records based on UHS and (b) example of EDP (q)—IM (Sa) relationship [59]

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Fig. 12

Scaling of the accelerograms based on the spectral ordinate at the fundamental period [64]

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Fig. 13

Scaling of the accelerograms based on the CMS [66] (Reprinted with permission from ASCE © 2011)

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Fig. 14

(a) Numerical model of unanchored storage tanks and (b) constitutive law of the rotational spring

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Fig. 15

(a) ABAQUS model of an unanchored tank and (b) static pushover analysis results of the tank: (a) overturning moment-rotation (Mψ) relationship [59]

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Fig. 16

(a) Fragility analysis of an elevated tank [72] and [90], (a) numerical model, (b) cloud analysis results, (c) incremental dynamic results, and (d) fragility curves

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Fig. 17

Shake table test on a broad tank within the European project INDUSE2: (a) picture of the mock-up and (b) numerical-experimental comparison of the sloshing wave [76]

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Fig. 18

One of the most probable accidental chains of a refinery tank farm obtained by Monte Carlo Simulations [101] (Reprinted with permission from Elsevier © 2018)

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Fig. 19

Example of event tree for storage tanks [101] (Reprinted with permission from Elsevier © 2018)

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Fig. 20

Example of LNG plant analyzed in [42] (Reprinted with permission from Elsevier © 2018): (a) plant layout, (b) LNG tank, (c) pipe rack, and (d) seismic vulnerability of the plant in terms of leakage

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