Problems and Perspectives in Seismic Quantitative Risk Analysis of Chemical Process Plants

[+] Author and Article Information
Antonio C. Caputo

Department of Engineering,
Roma Tre University,
Via Vito Volterra 62,
Rome 00146, Italy
e-mail: antonio.caputo@uniroma3.it

Fabrizio Paolacci

Department of Engineering,
Roma Tre University,
Via Vito Volterra 62,
Rome 00146, Italy
e-mail: fabrizio.paolacci@uniroma3.it

Oreste S. Bursi

Department of Civil,
Environment and Mechanical Engineering,
University of Trento,
Via Mesiano 77,
Trento 38123, Italy
e-mail: oreste.bursi@unitn.it

Renato Giannini

Department of Architecture,
Roma Tre University,
Via Aldo Manuzio 68 L,
Roma 00153, Italy
e-mail: renato.giannini@uniroma3.it

Manuscript received December 3, 2017; final manuscript received July 5, 2018; published online December 14, 2018. Assoc. Editor: Tomoyo Taniguchi.

J. Pressure Vessel Technol 141(1), 010901 (Dec 14, 2018) (15 pages) Paper No: PVT-17-1245; doi: 10.1115/1.4040804 History: Received December 03, 2017; Revised July 05, 2018

Earthquakes represent a class of natural-technical (NaTech) hazards which in the past have been responsible of major accidents and significant losses in many industrial sites. However, while codes and standards are issued to design specific structures and equipment in both the civil and industrial domain, established procedures for seismic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of process plants are not yet available. In this paper, a critical review of seismic QRA methods applicable to process plants is carried out. Their limitations are highlighted and areas where further research is needed are identified. This will allow to refine modeling tools in order to increase the capabilities of risk analysis in process plants subjected to earthquakes.

Copyright © 2019 by ASME
Your Session has timed out. Please sign back in to continue.


Krausmann, E. , Cozzani, V. , Salzano, E. , and Renni, E. , 2011, “ Industrial Accidents Triggered by Natural Hazards: An Emerging Risk Issue,” Nat. Hazard Earth Sys., 11(3), pp. 921–929. [CrossRef]
Campedel, M. , 2008, “ Analysis of Major Industrial Accidents Triggered by Natural Events Reported in the Principal Available Chemical Accident Databases,” Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen, Ispra, Italy, Report No. EUR 23391 EN. https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/38617902.pdf
European Parliament, 2012, “ Directive 2012/18/EU (Seveso III) on the Control of Major-Accident Hazards Involving Dangerous Substances Amending and Subsequently Repealing Council Directive 96/82/EC,” European Union, Bruxelles, pp. 1–37.
Girgin, S. , and Krausmann, E. , 2013, “ RAPID-N: Rapid Natech Risk Assessment and Mapping Framework,” J. Loss Prev. Process, 26(6), pp. 949–960. [CrossRef]
HAZUS, 2001, Earthquake Loss Estimation Methodology, National Institute of Building Science, Risk Management Solutions, Menlo Park, CA.
Hinz, G. , and Kerkhof, K. , 2013, “ System Identification and Reduction of Vibrations of Piping in Different Conditions,” ASME Paper No. PVP2013-97694.
McDaniels, T. , Chang, S. , Cole, D. , Mikawoz, J. , and Longstaff, H. , 2008, “ Fostering Resilience to Extreme Events Within Infrastructure Systems: Characterizing Decision Contexts for Mitigation and Adaptation,” Global Environ. Change, 18(2), pp. 310–318. [CrossRef]
Choun, Y. S. , and Elnashai, A. S. , 2010, “ A Simplified Framework for Probabilistic Earthquake Loss Estimation,” Probab. Eng. Mech., 25(4), pp. 355–364. [CrossRef]
Huang, Y. N. , Whittaker, A. S. , and Luco, N. , 2011, “ A Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedure for Nuclear Power Plants—Part I: Methodology,” Nucl. Eng. Des., 241(9), pp. 3996–4003. [CrossRef]
Huang, Y. N. , Whittaker, A. S. , and Luco, N. , 2011, “ A Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment Procedure for Nuclear Power Plants—Part II: Application,” Nucl. Eng. Des., 241(9), pp. 3985–3995.
Kim, J. H. , Choi, I. K. , and Park, J. H. , 2011, “ Uncertainty Analysis of System Fragility for Seismic Safety Evaluation of NPP,” Nucl. Eng. Des., 241(7), pp. 2570–2579. [CrossRef]
Young, S. , Balluz, L. , and Malilay, J. , 2004, “ Natural and Technologic Hazardous Material Releases During and After Natural Disasters: A Review,” Sci. Total Environ., 322(1–3), pp. 3–20. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
Kim, H. , Heo, G. , and Jung, S. , 2016, “ QRA considering Multi-Vessel Failure Scenarios Due to a Natural Disaster—Lessons From Fukushima,” J. Loss Prev. Process Ind., 44, pp. 699–705. [CrossRef]
TNO, 1992, “ Methods for the Determination of Possible Damage, Green Book,” Director General of Labour, Voorburg, The Netherlands, Report No. CPR16E.
Cozzani, V. , and Salzano, E. , 2004, “ Threshold Values for Domino Effects Caused by Blast Wave Interaction With Process Equipment,” J. Loss Prev. Process Ind., 17(6), pp. 437–447. [CrossRef]
Mingguang, Z. , and Juncheng, J. , 2008, “ An Improved Probit Method for Assessment of Domino Effect to Chemical Process Equipment Caused by Overpressure,” J. Hazard. Mater., 158(2–3), pp. 280–286. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
Antonioni, G. , Spadoni, G. , and Cozzani, V. , 2007, “ A Methodology for the Quantitative Risk Assessment of Major Accidents Triggered by Seismic Events,” J. Hazard. Mater., 147(1–2), pp. 48–59. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
Campedel, M. , Cozzani, V. , Garcia-Aneda, A. , and Salzano, E. , 2008, “ Extending the Quantitative Assessment of Industrial Risks to Earthquake Effects,” Risk Anal., 28(5), pp. 1231–1246. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
Caputo, A. C. , Giannini, R. , and Paolacci, F. , 2015, “ Quantitative Seismic Risk Assessment of Process Plants: State of the Art Review and Directions for Future Research,” ASME Paper No. PVP2015-45374.
Cozzani, V. , Antonioni, G. , Landucci, G. , Tugnoli, A. , Bonvicini, S. , and Spadoni, G. , 2014, “ Quantitative Assessment of Domino and Natech Scenarios in Complex Industrial Areas,” J. Loss Prev. Process Ind., 28, pp. 10–22. [CrossRef]
Alessandri, S. , Caputo, A. C. , Corritore, D. , Giannini, R. , Paolacci, F. , and Phan, H. N. , 2017, “ On the Use of Proper Fragility Models for Quantitative Seismic Risk Assessment of Process Plants in Seismic Prone Areas,” ASME Paper No. PVP2017-65137.
Paolacci, F. , Giannini, R. , and De Angelis, M. , 2012, “ Analysis of the Seismic Risk of Major-Hazard Industrial Plants and Applicability of Innovative Seismic Protection Systems,” Petrochemicals, P. Vivek , ed., IntechOpen, London.
Salzano, E. , Agreda, A. G. , Carluccio, A. , and Fabbrocino, G. , 2009, “ Risk Assessment and Early Warning Systems for Industrial Facilities in Seismic Zones,” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., 94(10), pp. 1577–1584. [CrossRef]
Paolacci, F. , Giannini, R. , and De Angelis, M. , 2013, “ Seismic Response Mitigation of Chemical Plant Components by Passive Control Systems,” J. Loss Prev. Process Ind., 26(5), pp. 879–948. [CrossRef]
Karamanos, S. , Bursi, O. S. , Reza, M. S. , Paolacci, F. , Varelis, G. , and Hoffmeister, B. , 2013, “ Structural Safety of Industrial Steel Tanks, Pressure Vessels and Piping Systems Under Seismic Loading,” INDUSE Project, Research Fund for Coal and Steel, European Union, Luxembourg, Final Report No. RFSR-CT-2009-00022.
Ballantyne, D. , O'Rourke, G. , Krinitzsky, M. , and Ellis, L. , 1991, “ Lifelines: Costa Rica Earthquake, April 22, 1991,” Earthquake Spectra, 7(S2), pp. 93–117. [CrossRef]
Stepp, J. C. , Swan, S. , Wesselink, L. , Haupt, R. W. , Larder, R. R. , Bachman, R. E. , Malik, L. , Eli, M. , and Porush, A. , 1990, “ Industrial Facilities,” Earthquake Spectra, 6(S1), pp. 189–238. [CrossRef]
Kikic, S. , Moncraz, P. , and Noakowsky, P. , 2001, “ A Preliminary Analysis of the Tupras Refinery Stack Collapse During Kocaeli Earthquake of 17 August 1999,” CICIND, Zurich, Switzerland, Vol. 17(1), CICIND Report.
Di Carluccio, A. , Fabbrocino, G. , Salzano, E. , and Manfredi, G. , 2008, “ Analysis of Pressurized Horizontal Vessels Under Seismic Excitation,” 14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering (WCEE), Beijing, China Oct. 12–17. https://www.iitk.ac.in/nicee/wcee/article/14_05-01-0222.PDF
Reza, M. S. , Bursi, O. S. , Paolacci, F. , and Kumar, A. , 2014, “ Performance of Non-Standard Bolted Flange Joints in Industrial Piping Systems Subjected to Seismic Loading,” J. Loss Prev. Process Ind., 30, pp. 124–136. [CrossRef]
Thermal and Nuclear Power Engineering Society, 2011, “ Special Topic: Reconstruction From the Earthquake (2nd report), Report of the Disaster Situation—Sendai Thermal Power Station and Shin-Sendai Thermal Power Station of Tohoku Electoric Power, Nakoso Power Plant of Joban Joint Power,” Vol. 62, Thermal and Nuclear Power Engineering Society, Sendai, Japan, pp. 1–7 (in Japanese).
Jain, S. K. , Lettis, W. R. , Murty, C. V. R. , and Bardet, J. P. , 2002, “ Bhuj, India Earthquake Reconnaissance Report. Supplement to Earthquake Spectra,” Vol. 18(S1), Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, Oakland, CA.
Maekawa, A. , 2012, Recent Advances in Seismic Response Analysis of Cylindrical Liquid Storage Tanks, Earthquake-Resistant Structures, M. Abbas , ed., IntechOpen, London.
Mikami, A. , Sato, Y. , Otani, A. , Iwamoto, K. , and Iijima, T. , 2009, “ The Ultimate Strength of Cylindrical Liquid Storage Tanks Under Earthquakes, Elasto-Plastic Dynamic Analysis With FSI of Buckling Failure Modes,” ASME Paper No. PVP2009-77067.
Cortes, G. , and Nussbaumer, A. , 2011, “ Experimental Study on the Seismic Behavior of Shell-Base Connections in Large Storage Tanks,” Third International Conference on Computational Methods in Structural Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering (COMPDYN), Corfu, Greece, May 25–28, pp. 1–8.
Matsui, T. , 2009, “ Sloshing in a Cylindrical Liquid Storage Tank With a Single-Deck Type Floating Roof Under Seismic Excitation,” ASME J. Pressure Vessel Technol., 131(2), p. 021303.
Matsui, T. , and Nagaya, T. , 2012, “ Nonlinear Sloshing in a Floating-Roofed Oil Storage Tank Under Long-Period Seismic Ground Motion,” Earthquake Eng. Struct. Dyn., 42(7), pp. 973–991. [CrossRef]
Hatayama, K. , 2008, “ Lessons From the 2003 Tokachi-Oki, Japan, Earthquake for Prediction of Long-Period Strong Ground Motions and Sloshing Damage to Oil Storage Tanks,” J. Seismol., 12(2), pp. 255–263. [CrossRef]
Salzano, E. , Iervolino, I. , and Fabbrocino, G. , 2003, “ Seismic Risk of Atmospheric Storage Tanks in the Framework of Quantitative Risk Analysis,” J. Loss Prev. Process Ind., 16(5), pp. 403–409. [CrossRef]
Nishi, H. , 2012, “ Damage on Hazardous Materials Facilities,” International Symposium on Engineering Lessons Learned From the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake,” Tokyo, Japan, Mar. 1–4, pp. 1–12.
Scawthorn, C. , and Johnson, G. S. , 2000, “ Preliminary Report: Kocaeli (Izmit) Earthquake of 17 August 1999,” Eng. Struct., 22(7), pp. 727–745. [CrossRef]
Bursi, O. S. , Di Filippo, R. , La Salandra, V. , Pedot, M. , and Reza, M. S. , 2017, “ Probabilistic Seismic Analysis of an LNG Subplant,” J. Loss Prev. Process Ind., 53, pp. 45–60. [CrossRef]
Bursi, O. E. , Paolacci, F. , Reza, M. S. , Alessandri, S. , and Tondini, N. , 2016, “ Seismic Assessment of Petrochemical Piping Systems Using a Performance-Based Approach,” ASME J. Pressure Vessel Technol., 138(3), p. 031801. [CrossRef]
Moat, A. M. , Morrison, J. T. A. , and Wong, S. , 2000, “ Performance of Industrial Facilities During 1999 Earthquakes: Implications for Risk Managers,” Global Change and Catastrophe Risk Management: Earthquake Risks in Europe, EuroConference, Laxenburg, Austria, July 6–9, pp. 1–12.
Kazama, M. , and Noda, T. , 2012, “ Damage Statistics (Summary of the 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake damage),” Soils and Foundations, 52(5), pp. 780–792. [CrossRef]
Dobashi, R. , 2014, “ Fire and Explosion Disasters Occurred Due to the Great East Japan Earthquake (March 11, 2011),” J. Loss Prev. Process Ind., 31, pp. 121–126. [CrossRef]
NFPA 59A, 2013, Standards for the Production, Storage and Handling of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA.
Nuclear Energy Agency, 2008, “ Differences in Approach Between Nuclear and Conventional Seismic Standards With Regard to Hazard Definition,” CSNI Integrity and Ageing Working Group, Nuclear Energy Agency Committee on the Safety of Nuclear Installations, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris, France, Report No. NEA/CSNI/R(2007)17. https://www.oecd-nea.org/nsd/docs/2007/csni-r2007-17.pdf
BS EN, 2005, “ Eurocode 8: Design of Structures for Earthquake Resistance–Part 1: General Rules, Seismic Actions and Rules for Buildings,” British Standard EN, Brussels, Belgium, Standard No. EN 1998-1.
Bursi, O. S. , Reza, S. M. , Abbiati, G. , and Paolacci, F. , 2015, “ Performance-Based Earthquake Evaluation of a Full-Scale Petrochemical Piping System,” J. Loss Prev. Process Ind., 33, pp. 10–22. [CrossRef]
Cornell, A. C. , 1968, “ Engineering Seismic Risk Analysis,” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 58(5), pp. 1583–1606.
McGuire, R. K. , 1995, “ Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis and Design Earthquakes: Closing the Loop,” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 85(5), pp. 1275–1284.
Sousa, L. , Marques, M. , Silva, V. , and Varum, U. , 2017, “ Hazard Disaggregation and Record Selection for Fragility Analysis and Earthquake Loss Estimation,” Earthquake Spectra, 33(2), pp. 529–549. [CrossRef]
Bazzurro, P. , and Cornell, C. A. , 1999, “ Disaggregation of Seismic Hazard,” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 89(2), pp. 501–520.
Rodriguez-Marek, A. , Rathje, E. M. , Bommer, J. J. , Scherbaum, F. , and Stafford, P. J. , 2014, “ Application of Single-Station Sigma and Site-Response Characterization in a Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Analysis for a New Nuclear Site,” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 104(4), pp. 1601–1619. [CrossRef]
Atkinson, G. M. , 2006, “ Single-Station Sigma,” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 96(2), pp. 446–455. [CrossRef]
Choi, Y. , and Stewart, J. P. , 2005, “ Nonlinear Site Amplification as Function of 30 m Shear Wave Velocity,” Earthquake Spectra, 21(1), pp. 1–30. [CrossRef]
Katsanos, E. I. , Sextos, A. G. , and Manolis, G. D. , 2010, “ Selection of Earthquake Ground Motion Records: A State-of-the-Art Review From a Structural Engineering Perspective,” Soil Dyn. Earthquake Eng., 30(4), pp. 157–169. [CrossRef]
Phan, H. , Paolacci, F. , and Alessandri, S. , 2018, “ Enhanced Seismic Fragility Analysis of Unanchored Steel Storage Tanks Accounting for Uncertain Modeling Parameters,” ASME. J. Pressure Vessel Technol. (accepted).
Baker, J. W. , and Allin Cornell, C. , 2005, “ A Vector-Valued Ground Motion Intensity Measure Consisting of Spectral Acceleration and Epsilon,” Earthquake Eng. Struct. Dyn., 34(10), pp. 1193–1217. [CrossRef]
Abrahamson, N. A. , 1992, “ Non-Stationary Spectral Matching,” Seismol. Res. Lett., 63(1), p. 30.
Mukherjee, S. , and Gupta, V. , 2002, “ Wavelet-Based Generation of Spectrum-Compatible Time Histories,” Soil Dyn. Earthquake Eng., 22(9–12), pp. 799–804. [CrossRef]
Shome, N. , Cornell, C. A. , Bazzurro, P. , and Carballo, J. E. , 1998, “ Earthquakes, Records, and Nonlinear Responses,” Earthquake Spectra, 14(3), pp. 469–500. [CrossRef]
Cimellaro, G. P. , and Sebastiano, M. , 2015, “ A Computer-Based Environment for Processing and Selection of Seismic Ground Motion Records: OPENSIGNAL,” Front. Built Environ., 1, pp. 17–34.
Baker, J. W. , and Allin Cornell, C. , 2006, “ Spectral Shape, Epsilon and Record Selection,” Earthquake Eng. Struct. Dyn., 35(9), pp. 1077–1095. [CrossRef]
Baker, J. W. , 2011, “ Conditional Mean Spectrum: Tool for Ground-Motion Selection,” J. Struct. Eng., 137(3), pp. 322–331. [CrossRef]
Lin, T. , Haselton, C. B. , and Baker, J. W. , 2013, “ Conditional Spectrum-Based Ground Motion Selection—Part I: Hazard Consistency for Risk-Based Assessments,” Earthquake Eng. Struct. Dyn., 42(12), pp. 1847–1865. [CrossRef]
Lin, T. , Haselton, C. B. , and Baker, J. W. , 2013, “ Conditional Spectrum-Based Ground Motion Selection—Part II: Intensity-Based Assessments and Evaluation of Alternative Target Spectra,” Earthquake Eng. Struct. Dyn., 42(12), pp. 1867–1884. [CrossRef]
Baker, J. W. , 2007, “ Probabilistic Structural Response Assessment Using Vector-Valued Intensity Measures,” Earthquake Eng. Struct. Dyn., 36(13), pp. 1861–1883. [CrossRef]
Bazzurro, P. , and Cornell, C. A. , 2002, “ Vector-Valued Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (VPSHA),” Seventh U.S. National Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Boston, MA, July 21–25, pp. 1–11. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/248311776_Vector-valued_probabilistic_seismic_hazard_analysis_VPSHA
Housner, G. W. , 1963, “ The Dynamic Behavior of Water Tanks,” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 53(2), pp. 381–387. https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/bssa/article-abstract/53/2/381/116141/the-dynamic-behavior-of-water-tanks?redirectedFrom=fulltext
Paolacci, F. , Phan, H. N. , Corritore, D. , Alessandri, S. , Bursi, O. S. , and Reza, M. S. , 2015, “ Seismic Fragility Analysis of Steel Storage Tanks,” Fifth ECCOMAS Thematic Conference on Computational Methods in Structural Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, Corfu, Greece, May 25–27, pp. 2054–2065. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/273656236_Seismic_Fragility_Analysis_of_Steel_Storage_Tanks
Malhotra, P. K. , and Veletsos, A. S. , 1994, “ Uplifting Response of Unanchored Liquid-Storage Tanks,” J. Struct. Eng., 120(12), pp. 3524–3546.
Phan, H. N. , Paolacci, F. , and P. Alessandri, S. , 2016, “ Fragility Analysis Methods for Steel Storage Tanks in Seismic Prone Areas,” ASME Paper No. PVP2016-63102.
Vathi, M. , and Karamanos, S. A. , 2018, “ A Simple and Efficient Model for Seismic Response and Low-Cycle Fatigue Assessment of Uplifting Liquid Storage Tanks,” J. Loss Prev. Process Ind., 53, pp. 29–44. [CrossRef]
Phan, H. N. , Paolacci, F. , and Mongabure, F. , 2017, “ Nonlinear Finite Element Analysis of Unanchored Steel Liquid Storage Tanks Subjected to Seismic Loadings,” ASME Paper No. PVP2017-65814.
DeGrassi, G. , Nie, J. , and Hofmayer, C. , 2008, “ Seismic Analysis of Large Scale Piping Systems for the JNES-NUPEC Ultimate Strength Piping Test Program,” U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC, Report No. NUREG/CR-6983. https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/nuregs/contract/cr6983/
Zeng, L. , Jansson, L. G. , and Venev, Y. , 2014, “ On Pipe Elbow Elements in ABAQUS and Benchmark Tests,” ASME Paper No. PVP2014-28920.
Otani, A. , Shibutani, T. , Morishita, M. , Nakamura, I. , and Shiratori, M. , 2017, “ Seismic Qualification of Piping System by Detailed Inelastic Response Analysis—Part 2: A Guideline for Piping Seismic Inelastic Response Analysis,” ASME Paper No. PVP2017-65190.
Azizpour, O. , and Hosseisni, M. , 2009, “ A Verification of ASCE Recommended Guidelines for Seismic Evaluation and Design of Combination Structures in Petrochemical Facilities,” J. Appl. Sci., 9(20), pp. 3609–3628. [CrossRef]
Paolacci, F. , Reza, M. S. , and Bursi, O. S. , 2011, “ Seismic Analysis and Component Design of Refinery Piping Systems,” COMPDYN-III, ECCOMAS Thematic Conference on Computational Methods in Structural Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, Corfu, Greece, May 26–28, pp. 1–24. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/232770195_SEISMIC_ANALYSIS_AND_COMPONENT_DESIGN_OF_REFINERY_PIPING_SYSTEMS
Sone, A. , Yamauchi, T. , and Masuda, A. , 2014, “ A Load Combination Method for Seismic Design of Multi-Degree-of-Freedom Piping Systems With Friction Characteristics and Multiple Support Systems,” ASME Paper No. PVP2014-28132.
Vathi, M. , Karamanos, S. A. , Kapogiannis, I. A. , and Spiliopoulos, K. V. , 2015, “ Performance Criteria for Liquid Storage Tanks and Piping Systems Subjected to Seismic Loading,” ASME Paper No. PVP2015-45700.
Campedel, M. , Antonioni, G. , Cozzani, V. , Buratti, N. , Ferracuti, B. , and Savoia, M. , 2008, “ Quantitative Risk Assessment of Accidents Induced by Seismic Events in Industrial Sites,” Chemical Engineering Transaction, Vol. 13, MIlan, Italy.
Berahman, F. , and Behnamfar, F. , 2007, “ Seismic Fragility Curves for Un-Anchored on-Grade Steel Storage Tanks: Bayesian Approach,” J. Earthquake Eng., 11(2), pp. 166–192. [CrossRef]
ALA, 2002, “ Seismic Design and Retrofit of Piping Systems,” American Lifelines Alliance, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington, DC.
Buratti, N. , and Tavano, M. , 2014, “ Dynamic Buckling and Seismic Fragility of Anchored Steel Tanks by the Added Mass Method,” Earthquake Eng. Struct. Dyn., 43(1), pp. 1–21. [CrossRef]
Bakalis, K. , Vamvatsikos, D. , and Fragiadakis, M. , 2015, “ Seismic Fragility Assessment of Steel Liquid Storage Tanks,” ASME Paper No. PVP2015-45370.
Iervolino, I. , Fabbrocino, G. , and Manfredi, G. , 2004, “ Fragility of Standard Industrial Structures by a Response Surface Based Method,” J. Earthquake Eng., 8(6), pp. 927–945.
Phan, H. N. , Paolacci, F. , Corritore, D. , Akbas, B. , Uckan, E. , and Shen, J. J. , 2016, “ Seismic Vulnerability Mitigation of Liquified Gas Tanks Using Concave Sliding Bearings,” Bull. Earthquake Eng., 14(11), pp. 3283–3299. [CrossRef]
Bu, S. J. , and Abhinav, G. , 2015, “ Seismic Fragility of Threaded Tee-Joint Connections in Piping System,” Int. J. Pressure Vessels Piping, 132–133, pp. 106–118.
Ehsan, S. F. , Bub, G. J. , Hyong, S. C. , and Nam, S. K. , 2015, “ Seismic Fragility Analysis of Seismically Isolated Nuclear Power Plants Piping System,” Nucl. Eng. Des., 284, pp. 264–279. [CrossRef]
Caprinozzi, S. , Ahmed, M. , Paolacci, F. , Bursi, O. S. , and La Salandra, V. , 2017, “ Univariate Fragility Models for Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of Refinery Piping Systems,” ASME Paper No. PVP2017-65138.
Phan, H. N. , and Paolacci, F. , 2016, “ Efficient Intensity Measures for Probabilistic Seismic Response Analysis of Anchored Above-Ground Liquid Steel Storage Tanks,” ASME Paper No. PVP2016-63103.
Wieschollek, M. , Hoffmeister, B. , and Feldmann, M. , 2013, “ Experimental and Numerical Investigations on Nozzle Reinforcements,” ASME Paper No. PVP2013-97430.
INDUSE 2 SAFETY, 2013, “ Component Fragility Evaluation and Seismic Safety Assessment of ‘Special Risk’ Petrochemical Plants Under Design Basis and Beyond Design Basis Accidents,” RFCS, European Union, Luxembourg, accessed July 30, 2018, http://www.induse2safety.unitn.it/
Vathi, M. , and Karamanos, S. A. , 2015, “ Simplified Model for the Seismic Performance of Unanchored Liquid Storage Tanks,” ASME Paper No. PVP2015-45695.
Fabbrocino, G. , Iervolino, I. , Orlando, F. , and Salzano, E. , 2005, “ Quantitative Risk Analysis of Oil Storage Facilities in Seismic Areas,” J. Hazard. Mater., 123(1–3), pp. 61–69. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
O'Rourke, M. , and So, P. , 2000, “ Seismic Fragility Curves for on‐Grade Steel Tanks,” Earthquake Spectra, 16(4), pp. 801–815. [CrossRef]
Caputo, A. C. , 2016, “ A Model for Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment of Process Plants,” ASME Paper No. PVP2016-63280.
Alessandri, S. , Caputo, A. C. , Corritore, D. , Giannini, R. , Paolacci, F. , and Phan, H. N. , 2018, “ Probabilistic Risk Analysis of Process Plants Under Seismic Loading Based on Monte Carlo Simulations,” J. Loss Prev. Process Ind., 53, pp. 136–148. [CrossRef]
Uijt De Haag, P. A. M. , and Ale, B. J. M. , 2005, “ Guidelines for Quantitative Risk Assessment, Purple Book,” Committee for the Prevention of Disasters, The Hague, Netherlands, Report No. CPR18E.
Necci, A. , Cozzani, V. , Spadoni, G. , and Khan, F. , 2015, “ Assessment of Domino Effect: State of the Art and Research Needs,” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., 143, pp. 3–18. [CrossRef]
Kadri, F. , and Chatelet, E. , 2013, “ Domino Effect Analysis and Assessment of Industrial Sites: A Review of Methodologies and Software Tools,” Int. J. Comput. Distrib. Syst., 2(III), pp. 1–10. https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01026495
Reniers, G. , and Cozzani, V. , 2013, Domino Effects in the Process Industries, Elsevier, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, p. 84.
Salzano, S. , and Cozzani, V. , 2005, “ The Analysis of Domino Accidents Triggered by Vapor Cloud Explosions,” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., 90, pp. 271–284.
Cozzani, V. , Gubinelli, G. , and Salzano, E. , 2006, “ Escalation Thresholds in the Assessment of Domino Accidental Events,” J. Hazard. Mater., 129(1–3), pp. 1–21. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
Cozzani, V. , Tugnoli, A. , and Salzano, E. , 2007, “ Prevention of Domino Effect. From Active and Passive Strategies to Inherently Safer Design,” J. Hazard. Mater., 139(2), pp. 209–219. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
Cozzani, V. , Tugnoli, A. , and Salzano, E. , 2009, “ The Development of an Inherent Safety Approach to the Prevention of Domino Accidents,” Accid. Anal. Prev., 41(6), pp. 1216–1227. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
Bernechea, E. J. , Vilchez, J. A. , and Arnaldos, J. , 2013, “ A Model for Estimating the Impact of the Domino Effect on Accident Frequencies in Quantitative Risk Assessments of Storage Facilities,” Process Saf. Environ. Prot., 91(6), pp. 423–437. [CrossRef]
Khan, F. , and Abbasi, S. A. , 1998, “ DOMIFFECT: User Friendly Software for Domino Effect Analysis,” Environ. Modell. Software, 13(2), pp. 163–177. [CrossRef]
Abdolhamodzadeh, B. , Abbasi, T. , Rashtchian, D. , and Abbasi, S. A. , 2010, “ A New Method for Assessing Domino Effect in Chemical Process Industry,” J. Hazard. Mater., 182(1–3), pp. 416–426. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
Khakzad, N. , 2015, “ Application of Dynamic Bayesian Network to Risk Analysis of Domino Effects in Chemical Infrastructures,” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., 138, pp. 263–272. [CrossRef]
Khakzad, N. , Khan, F. , Amyotte, P. , and Cozzani, V. , 2013, “ Domino Effect Analysis Using Bayesian Networks,” Risk Anal., 33(2), pp. 292–306. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
Khakzad, N. , and Reniers, G. , 2015, “ Using Graph Theory to Analyze the Vulnerability of Process Plants in the Context of Cascading Effects,” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., 143, pp. 63–73. [CrossRef]
Alileche, A. , Olivier, D. , Estel, L. , and Cozzani, V. , 2017, “ Analysis of Domino Effect in the Process Industry Using the Event Tree Method,” Saf. Sci., 97, pp. 10–19. [CrossRef]
Vilchez, J. A. , Espejo, V. , and Casal, J. , 2011, “ Generic Event Trees and Probabilities for the Release of Different Types of Hazardous Materials,” J. Loss Prev. Process Ind., 24(3), pp. 281–287. [CrossRef]
Pinkawa, M. , Hoffmeister, B. , and Feldmann, M. , 2014, “ Floor Response Spectra Considering Influence of Higher Modes and Dissipative Behaviour,” Seismic Design of Industrial Facilities, S. Klinkel , C. Butenweg , G. Lin , and B. Holtschoppen , eds., Springer Vieweg, Wiesbaden, Germany.
LESSLOSS, 2004, “ Risk Mitigation for Earthquakes and Landslides,” European Union, Luxembourg, Report No. GOCE-CT-2003-505448. https://cordis.europa.eu/project/rcn/74272_en.html
STREST, 2016, “ Harmonized Approach to Stress Tests for Critical Infrastructures against Natural Hazards, STREST Reference Report: Report on Lessons Learned From Recent Catastrophic Events,” G. Tsionis, A. Pinto, D. Giardini, and A. Mignan, eds., European Union, Luxembourg.
XP-RESILIENCE, 2016, “ Extreme Loading Analysis of Petrochemical Plants and Design of Metamaterial-Based Shields for Enhanced Resilience,” European Union, Luxembourg, accessed July 30, 2018, http://r.unitn.it/en/dicam/xp-resilience
Kiremidjian, A. , Ortiz, K. , Nielsen, R. , and Safavi, B. , 1985, “ Seismic Risk to Major Industrial Facilities,” Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, Report No. 72. https://stacks.stanford.edu/file/druid:nx764pz3149/TR72_Kiremidjian.pdf
Seligson, H. A. , Eguchi, R. T. , Tierney, K. J. , and Richmond, K. , 1996, “ Chemical Hazards, Mitigation and Preparedness in Areas of High Seismic Risk. A Methodology for Estimating the Risk of Post-Earthquake Hazardous Materials Release,” National Centre for Earthquake Engineering Research, State University of New York, Buffalo, NY, Report No. NCEER-96-0013. https://nehrpsearch.nist.gov/static/files/NSF/PB97133565.pdf
Busini, V. , Marzo, E. , Callioni, A. , and Rota, R. , 2011, “ Definition of a Short-Cut Methodology for Assessing Earthquake-Related Na-Tech Risk,” J. Hazard. Mater., 192(1), pp. 329–339. [PubMed]
Marzo, E. , Busini, V. , and Rota, R. , 2015, “ Definition of a Short-Cut Methodology for Assessing the Vulnerability of a Territory in Natural-Technological Risk Estimation,” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., 134, pp. 92–97. [CrossRef]
Sadeg-Azar, H. , and Hasenbank-Kriegbaum, T. D. , 2014, “ Probabilistic Seismic Analysis of Existing Industrial Facilities,” International Conference on Seismic Design of Industrial Facilities (SeDIF), Aachen, Germany, Sept. 26–27, pp. 101–112.
Caputo, A. C. , and Vigna, A. , 2017, “ Numerical Simulation of Seismic Risk and Loss Propagation Effects in Process Plants: An Oil Refinery Case Study,” ASME Paper No. PVP2017-65465.
Romeo, R. W. , 2014, “ Seismic Risk Analysis of a Oil-Gas Storage Plant,” Conference on Seismic Design of Industrial Facilities (SeDIF), Aachen, Germany, Sept. 26–27, ed., pp. 17–26.
Korkmaz, K. A. , Sari, A. , and Carhoglu, A. I. , 2011, “ Seismic Risk Assessment of Storage Tanks in Turkish Industrial Facilities,” J. Loss Prev. Process Ind., 24(4), pp. 314–320. [CrossRef]
Li, J. , Wang, Y. , Chen, H. , and Lin, L. , 2014, “ Risk Assessment Study of Fire Following an Earthquake: A Case Study of Petrochemical Enterprises in China,” Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14(4), pp. 891–900. [CrossRef]
Berger, J. , 1994, “ An Overview of Robust Bayesian Analysis,” Test, 3(1), pp. 5–124. [CrossRef]
Kwag, S. , Oh, J. , Lee, J. M. , and Ryu, J.-S. , 2017, “ Bayesian-Based Seismic Margin Assessment Approach: Application to Research Reactor,” Earthquakes Struct., 12(6), pp. 653–663. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/318959377_Bayesian-based_seismic_margin_assessment_approach_Application_to_research_reactor
Walley, P. , 1991, Statistical Reasoning With Imprecise Probabilities, Chapman and Hall, New York.
Dempster, A. , 1967, “ Upper and Lower Probabilities Induced by a Multivalued Mapping,” Ann. Math. Stat., 38(2), pp. 325–39. [CrossRef]
Shafer, G. , 1976, A Mathematical Theory of Evidence, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
Houtermans, M. J. M. , Apostolakis, G. E. , Brombacher, A. C. , and Karydas, D. M. , 2002, “ The Dynamic Flowgraph Method—Ology as a Safety Analysis Tool: Programmable Electronic System Design and Verification,” Saf. Sci., 40(9), pp. 813–833. [CrossRef]
Haji-Soltani, A. , and Pezeshk, S. , 2017, “ A Comparison of Different Approaches to Incorporate Site Effects in PSHA: A Case Study for a Liquefied Natural Gas Tank,” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am, 107(6): pp. 2927–2947. [CrossRef]
Haji-Soltani, A. , Pezeshk, S. , Malekmohammadi, M. , and Zandieh, A. , 2017, “ A Study of Vertical to Horizontal Ratio of Earthquake Components in the Gulf Coast Region,” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 107(5), pp. 2055–2066. [CrossRef]
Caputo, A. C. , and Paolacci, F. , 2017, “ A Method to Estimate Process Plant Seismic Resilience,” ASME Paper No. PVP2017-65464.
Dinh, L. T. T. , Pasman, H. , Gao, X. , and Sam Mannan, M. , 2012, “ Resilience Engineering of Industrial Processes: Principles and Contributing Factors,” J. Loss Prev. Process Ind., 25(2), pp. 233–241. [CrossRef]
API/ASME, 2007, “ Fitness for Service,” The American Society of Mechanical Engineers, New York, Standard No. API 579-1/ASME FFS-1.


Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 1

Buckling phenomenon in the skirt at a column base [25]

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 2

Residual deformation of the anchor in the column skirt [25] (Reproduced from https://nisee.berkeley.edu/elibrary/Image/S116)

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 3

Elephant foot buckling failure of 2000 m3 water tank [31]

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 4

Sloshing buckling failure of a water tank [31]

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 5

Motor fuel storage tank slid off its foundation causing extensive damage to inlet and outlet piping [32] (Reprinted with permission of Earthquake Engineering Research Institute © 2002)

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 6

Damages to tanks with floating roof due to Tokachi-Oki earthquakes [38] (Reprinted with permission from Springer Nature © 2007)

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 7

LPG tank failure during the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake [40]

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 8

LPG tank failure during the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake [41] (Reprinted with permission of Elsevier © 2000)

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 9

Seismogenic zones and site: Priolo Gargallo (Italy)

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 10

Example of Hazard curve of Priolo Gargallo, Italy

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 11

(a) Selection of natural records based on UHS and (b) example of EDP (q)—IM (Sa) relationship [59]

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 12

Scaling of the accelerograms based on the spectral ordinate at the fundamental period [64]

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 13

Scaling of the accelerograms based on the CMS [66] (Reprinted with permission from ASCE © 2011)

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 14

(a) Numerical model of unanchored storage tanks and (b) constitutive law of the rotational spring

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 15

(a) ABAQUS model of an unanchored tank and (b) static pushover analysis results of the tank: (a) overturning moment-rotation (Mψ) relationship [59]

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 16

(a) Fragility analysis of an elevated tank [72] and [90], (a) numerical model, (b) cloud analysis results, (c) incremental dynamic results, and (d) fragility curves

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 17

Shake table test on a broad tank within the European project INDUSE2: (a) picture of the mock-up and (b) numerical-experimental comparison of the sloshing wave [76]

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 18

One of the most probable accidental chains of a refinery tank farm obtained by Monte Carlo Simulations [101] (Reprinted with permission from Elsevier © 2018)

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 19

Example of event tree for storage tanks [101] (Reprinted with permission from Elsevier © 2018)

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 20

Example of LNG plant analyzed in [42] (Reprinted with permission from Elsevier © 2018): (a) plant layout, (b) LNG tank, (c) pipe rack, and (d) seismic vulnerability of the plant in terms of leakage



Some tools below are only available to our subscribers or users with an online account.

Related Content

Customize your page view by dragging and repositioning the boxes below.

Related Journal Articles
Related eBook Content
Topic Collections

Sorry! You do not have access to this content. For assistance or to subscribe, please contact us:

  • TELEPHONE: 1-800-843-2763 (Toll-free in the USA)
  • EMAIL: asmedigitalcollection@asme.org
Sign In