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Research Papers: Materials and Fabrication

Prediction of Fracture Failure of Steel Pipes With Sharp Corrosion Pits Using Time-Dependent Reliability Method With Lognormal Process

[+] Author and Article Information
Guoyang Fu

School of Engineering,
RMIT University,
Melbourne 3001, Australia;
Department of Civil Engineering,
Monash University,
Clayton 3800, Australia
e-mail: guoyang.fu@monash.edu

Wei Yang

College of Engineering and Science,
Victoria University,
Melbourne 8001, Australia
e-mail: wei.yang@vu.edu.au

Wenni Deng

School of Civil Engineering,
Southeast University,
Nanjing 210096, China
e-mail: wdeng@seu.edu.cn

Chun-Qing Li

Professor
School of Engineering,
RMIT University,
Melbourne 3001, Australia
e-mail: chunqing.li@rmit.edu.au

Sujeeva Setunge

School of Engineering,
RMIT University,
Melbourne 3001, Australia
e-mail: sujeeva.setunge@rmit.edu.au

1Corresponding author.

Contributed by the Pressure Vessel and Piping Division of ASME for publication in the JOURNAL OF PRESSURE VESSEL TECHNOLOGY. Manuscript received October 1, 2018; final manuscript received February 19, 2019; published online March 21, 2019. Assoc. Editor: Yun-Jae Kim.

J. Pressure Vessel Technol 141(3), 031401 (Mar 21, 2019) (8 pages) Paper No: PVT-18-1216; doi: 10.1115/1.4043010 History: Received October 01, 2018; Revised February 19, 2019

This paper presents a reliability-based methodology for assessing fracture failures of steel pipes with sharp corrosion pits. Based on newly developed models of elastic fracture toughness, the simple criterion of stress intensity factor (SIF) is used to establish the limit state functions for pipes with sharp corrosion pits in the longitudinal and circumferential directions. A stochastic model of load effect is developed and a time-dependent reliability method based on first passage probability for nonstationary lognormal processes is employed to quantify the probability of failure and predict the remaining service life. After applying the methodology to a case study, sensitivity analysis is carried out to identify the most influential variables on the probability of failure. It is found in the paper that the correlation coefficient has a considerable effect on probability of failure of steel pipes with sharp corrosion pits and that the larger the mode I fracture toughness is, the smaller the probability of pipe failure is.

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Figures

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 1

External surface cracks in steel pipes: (a) a longitudinal crack and (b) a circumferential crack

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 2

Probability of pipe failure for different ρ values: (a) longitudinal crack and (b) circumferential crack

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 3

Probability of pipe failure for different values of fracture toughness with ρ = 0.5: (a) longitudinal crack and (b) circumferential crack

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 4

Change of probability sensitivity index with time: (a) longitudinal crack and (b) circumferential crack

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